Showing posts with label Jordan Ellenberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jordan Ellenberg. Show all posts

Sunday 11 August 2019

How To Win The Lottery and Make money on Scratch Cards


Basically don't buy them. It amused me that whet the National Lottery started there were lots of books on "How To Win The Lottery"  (surprisingly there are still lots of books on this, who buys them?)  and I've heard people talk about about how to win at scratch cards. Jordan Ellenberg wrote a book called "How Not To Be Wrong" and it contains a chapter on how to win on certain lotteries where there is a trickle down if the main jackpot is not won, but this requires a sizeable dedicated team and a lot of money to crack it. Remember that for each person to win £5 million on the National Lottery  more than 2.5 million people have to lose, yes you might win, but it is not very likely is it.

Today it is hot but raining and thing is in some ways that's not a great thing , because the water falls then because of the heat in evaporates filling the clouds with more water to rain down on us. The benefit is we don't have to water the garden but is a definite symptom of global warming.

Been listening to a lot of vinyl this morning while relaxing , Boston, Bowie , Brubeck and Split Enz , the laser etched disks still amaze me (on my instagram feed here), and the first side of the Boston album is close to perfect, I should really play the second side sometime, but it is twenty minutes of vinyl perfection.

So what should I share with you, I think we'll go with the best football song ever, "England's Irie" by Black Grape for the chorus lines:

"I live in a land of class hypocrisy, 
We're going to win the National Lottery, 
E I Adio, I don't think so"

Don't you think so?

I am not sure if you are aware of my writing on Vocal but these are a few of my stories if you would like to sample them:

  1. The Never Ending Story - An Index of All My Vocal Writing
  2. A Halloween Film Evening
  3. A Waterfall of Clouds
  4. The Witch's Promise
  5. Waiting For The Green Light - The Genius of Bill Hicks

Tuesday 12 September 2017

The Housemartins - The Greatest Marxist Band Ever To Pick Up Guitars


I read that statement twice when I read it in Jordan Ellenberg's "How Not to Be Wrong: The Hidden Maths of Everyday Life", I know the Housemartins were committed left wing and Paul Heaton definitely still is but does that make them Marxist.

Maybe Robert Wyatt could be Marxist, especially listening to his stuff post Soft Machine. His band after that was Matching Mole which is extrapolated from the French for "Soft Machine" , "Machine Molle" apparently. My french is only 'O' Level but Google translates as "Machine Souple" though the reverse translation comes out as correct.

There were a lot of bands that may have been Marxist  that are in my collection , a possible list here:

And to some extent Billy Bragg, Woody Guthrie and the list could go on for a long time.

All these bands are well worth a listen whatever your politics, they are probably all on Youtube so go and have a look and listen. This is one of the great things about this digital age, you don't read this and then think I will have to go and research that tomorrow. I remember in the seventies when you read about a band you often had to look in the music mags like Sounds and NME scour the adverts and then order an album on import, hoping it would be as good as the title and blurmb made it sound.

Anyway I've included "Sitting On A Fence" the song that Jordan Ellenberg used to illustrate his point, and if you want to know what the point was you will have to read Ellenberg's book.

Have a good Tuesday.

Sunday 10 September 2017

I Do Not Want To Do That


Some days you wake up and you really don't want to get out of bed. Having a shave and a wash and cleaning your teethare chores that you'd rather not do, because there are other things that maybe you do want to do, but let's face you have to do these things to make yourself at lease basically presentable to the world...and then you have got to have a shower because the rest of your body needs cleaning and after that it's time for deodorant, hair gel and bloody contact lenses , because you have to be able to see where you are going, and then there's that contact lens that will stick to everything apart from your eye. Eventually you actually get through all this and you are ready for the day and you know it was actually worth it. You could have stayed in bed but now you are up and ready to go.

This sometimes happens during the week, but has to be overcome because you have to go to work to actually fund your lifestyle. Not doing that is not an option. You have about 130 days in the year that you don't have to do that made up of weekends, bank holidays and your alocated holidays. Some people have more, some have less but it's something you have to do.

I have now committed myself to doing 340K steps a month. Today I don;t really feel like doing my steps but I am going to walk into town and back. I don't have to do this , but this walking has reduced my insulin intake by 75%, helped me lose a little weight, made me slightly fitter , and enabled to take some great videos , see things in my locality that I didn't know existed, catch up on some great music that I had either forgotten or bought and never even listened to, until I started the walking . So whether I feel like doing it or not I WILL hit 11.5K steps today. I have a place to aim for and thanks to technology I can document it while listening to great music.

The Jordan Ellenberg book is also not the most rivetting but I have got some great information from it and it's been worth reading and with only another twenty pages to go , the end is in sight.

So on my walk I will choose an album or two to listen to,  sometimes I don't listen to anything , but I tend to walk for about 90 minutes a day which should be time for two albums, and my collection is bigger than five thousand albums so even listening at two a day that would take over seven years to listen to my whole collection.

I 'll treat you to The Records' cover of Tim Rose's "Rock and Roll Love Letter" (also covered by the Bay City Rollers in one of their many lapses into taste) and go and sort out some breakfast. Enjoy your Sunday my friends.

Saturday 9 September 2017

Somewhat Unusual


Nothing major but I had completed my steps by about two of the clock today without really trying to do any walking, I really wish I could do this every day as part of my routine, so that I didn't really notice I was doing it.

I amd still reading the Jordan Ellenberg book but it is more about poll s and statistics and the only relationship with maths is that numbers are used in both areas .

As I write this I am listening to my favourite Jean Michelle Jarre album "Equinoxe" with an 'e' on the end but he is French in the best possible way. The son of Maurice Jarre the film composer (who is responsible for a hell of a lot of major film scores from "Lawrence of Arabia" to "Ghost") so music runs in the family. I remember seeing the Millenium Concert in Egypt with Giant Penguins and lots of other idiosyncracies (is that the way you spell it, the spell checker seems to be on leave at the moment). I don't know if it's available to buy but I have included the Youtube video , two and a half hours if you have an evening or train journey to spare.

Anyway Todays album of the day was "Ooh La La" by The Faces, while some of the songs are dated by the time "Silicone Grown", "Just A Honky" lyrically dodgy but musically excellent , others stand the test of time very well such as the title track , "Cindy Incidentally" and "Flags and Banners".

So anyway it's time for tea and to finish "Escape From LA" before starting the lastest "American Horror Story". That's my Saturday evening sorted, hope yours is great too.

Monday 4 September 2017

The Art of Not Getting Up


Strange how when you stop trying to do things you suddenly have the ability to do it.
 I wanted to do fifty posts in August for #August50 but got nowhere near (I think I did about thirty), although to be honest the further behind I got , the more difficult it became to catch up. It's like riding a bike or remembering songs when you are playing live , as soon as you start thinking about it you fall off or forget what you are supposed to be doing. In September we're up to the 4th and this is my eight post already. I know that it will tail off but at this rate I could easily hit fifty for September.

Anyway after yesterday writing about how to get up easily, this morning I feel really tired. It is Monday, I do have to go to the Post Office to pick up a Nirvana box set, I have to go to work , and it's grey outside though not dark, and I was dreaming of being in bed at mid day listening to something on vinyl through a system with a decent thump for the bass subwoofer, then the alarm went off and I didn't want to get up.

I managed (mostly on autopilot) to shower and wash , read some of Jordan Ellenberg's "How Not to Be Wrong: The Hidden Maths of Everyday Life" which is more about statistics and probabilities, and while interesting it's as far from what I consider maths as pilotting and airplane is from riding a bike, and that analogy probably shows how unintelligent I really am. I found a disted read on the Guardian site here if you would like a taste.

Anyway it's ten to seven so time to get myself into gear and maybe a little Nirvana to start the day, withem covering a song from one of my many favourite Bowie albums, "The Man Who Sold The World". Have a great  Monday, I managed to get up , now it's your turn.

Wednesday 23 August 2017

God Guided My Hand


I'm still reading the Jordan Ellenberg book and I've just finished the chapter that explains how to win at the lottery, which basically means finding a certain time of lottery and having your syndicate write out and enter 300K tickets when the conditions are right, and this can guarantee a profit of maybe £50K , so not for the average punter.

The current chapter talks about the likelihood of the existence of God (He does exist and I follow him on Facebook here and instagram here incidentally) and the mathematician Pascal (and Ellenberg) reckoned that even if there was only a 5% chance that God existed , and the rewards for believing in Him are Infinite Ecstacy , then 5% of Infinity is still Infinity, so it's a great investment either way. OK there's a 95% chance there is no God but the investment is still worthwhile because if there is a God you are well rewarded. However this binary argument is flawed because There may be no (Christian) God, there may be a (Christian) God , but there may be other Gods who will condemn you to eternal damnation so the belief suddenly becomes a very big gamble, now it's happiness or nothing or misery.

It's also like sometimes I will see something like a horse bet, or an album I've never heard of and go for it based on no logic that I can think of and the horse will win (the other week the name "Sea Monkey" was jumping out at me, it wasn't the favourite and was going to bet on the favourite but then changed my mind and made a profit) , or the album will be brilliant and there are people who will say God guided them to this wonderful situation when actually it's nothing more than coincidence and good luck. Usually those things are followed by an increase in belief and confidence until the next one doesn't work out.

Anyway the song that comes to mind is The Saints' "Church of Indifference" , probably my favourite Australian band. Have a good Wednesday everybody.

Friday 4 August 2017

Random Precision


Yesterday my rando play played three consecutive tracks from the Van Der Graaf album "Present" starting with the opener "Every Bloody Emperor" and finishing with "Nutter Alert", this was followed by a couple of Spirit songs thwn that awful Cream song then two Stone Roses songs. At first I thought it had slipped off random play but as I was walking and I like the album I was OK with it.

A couple of months ago I was talking with Juliet and Kirsty and about how people don't really understand the concept of "random". She had provided a "random" data sample, then the requester came back and said they wanted data from Area "A" , Area "B" , well each area they covered. Kirsty pointed out that that this wouldn't be a random sample if you started applying criteria.

Jordan Ellenberg point to an American Lottery result where the same numbers were selected two draws in a row. In a true random selection 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as random and likely as any other. Ellenberg points out that the improbable is highly probable. The nature of random is that it may appear ordered, it's not, but our minds always try to order things, and see logical patterns, and we can see logical patterns where the probability is just complete randomness and even chaos (think reading tea leaves and the I-Ching which is basically throwing sticks. You can add divination by cards like Tarot (I do have two Tarot decks but they are just works of art), which again uses randomness to determine fact, which really is not a practical or logical path to go down.

Well we are at Friday , and the real Football season starts today whith Sunderland playing Derby and Nottingham Forest take on Millwall. It looks sunny, but it looked sunny yesterday. I will walk into work today and listen to more random music

Thursday 3 August 2017

The Baltimore Stockbroker


Well the #August50 hasn't started well, so much for two posts a day, although I have a lot of time to make it up, though because August has a few weekend away , I probably only have about 25 days when I can write, so the two a day is sort of essential when I can write.

My walking has got off to a reasonable start, and last night it poured down but today looks like another bright day, that's perfect really , rain at night the sun during the day.

Though there's no direct posts about The Baltimore Stockbroker, it's something I had heard about but not thought about. It came up in the Jordan Ellenberg book an is basically about targetting people to take advantage of them. Anyone can do it, it's just whether you are enough of a git to actually do it but financial institutions and governments do it all the time. This is the full story from Mike Adams blog

"To repeat from the beginning: Suppose you received a letter from a financial advisor who told you a certain stock was going up over the next several weeks. You watched the stock, and sure enough it went up. A few weeks later that same financial advisor sent another letter to say another stock was going to go down over the following few weeks. Sure enough, as you watched, the stock did go down. Then that same financial advisor sent a third letter to tell you to watch another stock that was going to go up. Sure enough it did. With the next letter the financial advisor told you to watch another stock that was going to go up. And sure enough it did. That same financial advisor sent another six letters each time predicting correctly the direction of every stock he told you to watch – a perfect prediction ten out of ten times.

In the eleventh letter he asked for a big investment. What would you say? He had been right ten out of ten times. What the investor does not see is the total picture—the whole story. That financial advisor began sending letters to 10,240 prospects. In 5,120 he predicted the stock would go up; in the other 5,120 he predicted the stock would go down. The 5,120 to whom he sent the letter saying the stock would go down never heard from our financial advisor. Of the 5,120 to whom he said the stock would go up, 2,560 got a second letter predicting that second stock would go up and the other 2,560 got a second letter saying the second stock would go down. The 2,560 who got the letter predicting the wrong direction of the stock those people never heard from our financial advisor again. Of those who got the correct prediction, 1,280 got the third letter predicting a third stock would go up and 1,280 got a letter saying the third stock would go down. You the reader now the full story. Only 10 prospects would get letters with 10 perfect predictions. The other 10, 230 people never heard from the advisor ever again. "

So a small group of people think that the guy is a genius. The book goes on to state , quite rightly, that the improbable is highly probable because there are so many people. It's high;y improbably that you will win on the lottery or a horse race , but people do and sometimes quite handsomely. The thing is with today's speed of communication we hear about these things a lot more quickly. We have tools to help us if we so choose,  but improbabilty and  chance can always throw a spanner in the work.

Part of life is about minimising risk, and we all do that. You set out a bit earlier to get the bus that will get you to work on time, but sometoimes the bus doesn't turn up and you are still late. I try and minimise risk by building in contiongency and options to everything, but it doesn't alwys work , but actually does 99% of the time. I don't tend to miss trains or flights or be late for work or miss paying bills because I have things in place "just in case".

Sorry this is just a functional post, but I suppose the theme points toward the superb Penetration song "Life's A Gamble" . Will I do another post today? We shall see .....

Have a brilliant Thursday everybody 

Sunday 30 July 2017

Numbers and Men In Skirts


As a kid I used to wonder why we had to learn our "times tables". Learning things parrot fashion , is not useful, especially when you are talking mathematics. Fast forwrd to "some time later"  and I find I don't have to look up , work out , or use a calculator to work out this simple multiplications, I just know them. And applying thouse concepts I'm pretty quick on working out the product of any pair of two digit numbers, but up to twelve I just know them, so actually learning the "times tables" benefitted me.

I am learning quite a lot about mathematics and number from my latest book feast, "How Not to Be Wrong: The Hidden Maths of Everyday Life" by Jordan Ellenberg which is just going through the differences between large and small sampling operations which has thown a lot of interesting concepts.

Tomorrow is the last day of the month so this week has been a rest from walking though I have still hit more that 7K each day so I am not being average, and from Tuesday I will attempt to do 340K steps in August and repeat that each month.

The last two days I have felt incredibly drained, and really not up to actually walking , and today I had the added extras of changing the bedding, mowing the lawn , and refilling the bird feeders. Added to that I think my phone is going through one of it's phases of not recording steps (a couple of normally 1K walks clocked at 200 steps), but I still hit 9K today and am 70K over the million for the last quarter.

Yesterday I was totally drained but I got myself over to The Doll at The Black Bull to catch Woment In Revolt (they are the ones in skirts) and you can see the video evidence here from a great night, but I was done by ten o'clock. I came home went to post the video online and managed to screw my computer by plugging in a USB cable. It then took an hour to do a restore, but all is good now and all seems to be working well. I've just had a look at the demographics of my audience for youtube and only 20% are female, I am not sure why that should be, but you could say  "C'est La Vie" as Chuck Berry once said , and we got the Pulp Fiction Twist scene featuring John Travolta and Uma Thurman for you to enjoy.

So the weekend is over and Monday is upon us, I hope to feel a lot more energised tomorrow, so I am going to get some sleep. 

Tuesday 25 July 2017

Am I Right?


I've probably written about this before, but what the hell , I'll write about it again. It's only a very short point and short story but because I am writing it I can use as many words as I want, and I thing generally my posts are definitely a bit longer these days than they used to be. I like to think that I hit 250 - 500 words with each one but sometimes it will be less and sometiimes more.

I'm very tired so I think this will be lucky to hit 200 words but whatever. I 've just finished "Electric Eden" by Rob Young discovering quite a lot about music that I didn't know along the way, and now I have picked up "How Not to Be Wrong: The Hidden Maths of Everyday Life" by Jordan Ellenberg whichis very interesting and got me reminsicing.

Many years ago I had a pschometric test and was told that the test showed I had a problem. The problem, apparently was that:

I WANTED TO BE RIGHT

not that I thought I was right, I WANTED to be right. The guy said this could be dealt with. I said wait a minute , doesn't every person want to be right? Is't that a positive trait in someone? I would certainly see it as positive , striving to be right all the time.I have always been willing to acceot that I'm wrong when shown the reason for me being wrong and then sown how to make it right, but I will not stand for someone telling me I'm wrong on their say so. Many times I clashed with people in that situation and one or two said to me in private "You may be right, but I am in charge". This could explain a lot, so people don't like you being right.

Anyway it's time for bed, I need to be up at five, so what's a perfect song , maybe "Right" by David Bowie? Goodnight my friends.